The Moore, the merrier ...

The Golden Globes have come and gone. Here’s a few thoughts on the results and what they mean for the Oscars, as well as reaction to host Ricky Gervais.
The Globes’ film winners essentially confirmed a lot that was already thought. With its wins in best picture (drama), best director (David Fincher) and best screenplay (Aaron Sorkin), combined with the zillion other critics’ group awards it’s won, “The Social Network” is the movie to beat.
Likewise, Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”) and Christian Bale (“The Fighter” are front-runners in the lead and supporting acting categories.
More intriguing are the actress categories. Annette Bening (“The Kids Are Alright”) and Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”) both won, and it’s apparent best actress will come down to these two. Melissa Leo’s supporting actress win in “The Fighter” was a bit surprising since she was facing one of her co-stars (Amy Adams) and that tends to lead to nominee canceling each other out.

Now, on to Gervais. A lot of people thought he went too far and was too nasty in some of his roast-style remarks about the ceremonies. My response is simple: What did you expect?
He had been talking for weeks leading up to the show about how he wasn’t going to take prisoners on the broadcast. If anything, he could have gone a lot further.
If anything, the controversy surrounding the Hollywood Foreign Press (a savvy, but elitist group) leading up to the ceremony validating his jokes. After all, the Hollywood Foreign Press once gave an award to Pia Zadora, prompting speculation that her then-billionaire husband essentially bought the award.
This type of hubris, coupled with bizarre remarks from Sorkin about how people should aspire to elite (like himself, presumably) give more credence to Gervais’ scathing routine. Whether Sorkin’s intent was a political comment (on being an “elite liberal”) or simply narcissism (something he’s been accused of frequently in the past) is up for debate.

In any event, those who were bothered by Gervais’ routine need to get a sense of humor.

I’ve never made any secret of the fact that I’m a die-hard “Star Trek” fan.

Anyway, on Sept. 28 in 1987, the Final Frontier returned to television as “Star Trek: The Next Generation” made its debut to first-run syndication.

The premiere episode, “Encounter at Farpoint, Part I” debuted to 27 million viewers. The episode introduced us to the new crew of the starship Enterprise, led by Capt. John-Luc Picard (Patrick Stewart). It also featured a cameo by original series actor DeForest Kelley, here playing the ancient Adm. McCoy in an amusing scene with the android character Data (Brent Spiner).

I was always a big fan of the original series and, like many, was skeptical of a new “Star Trek” After all, the originnal built a strong following and had, to that point spun off four movies, the most recent of which (“Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home,” aka “The one with the whales”) had been the most successful of any at the box office. How would a new cast and new characters stack up.

Initially, the series was OK, but not great. It didn’t hit its stride until the third season and then it became one of my favorite shows.

The series was perennially No. 1 among syndicated television shows, and proved that television shows could premiere to strong ratings outside the then-traditional networks. The series ran seven seasons until its finale “All Good Things” on May 23, 1994. The cast didn’t get much of a break. They were featured in the movie “Star Trek Generations,” which hit the big screen on Nov. 18, 1994. The “Next Generation” cast would also be featured in “Star Trek: First Contact” in 1996, “Star Trek: Insurrection” in 1998 and “Star Trek: Nemesis” in 2002. The show’s success also spawned some television follow-ups with “Star Trek: Deep Space Nine” in first-run syndication, “Star Trek: Voyager” as the flagship of then-new United Paramount Network (UPN) and “Enterprise” (also UPN).

Of course, the franchise is still going strong, as witnessed by the hit 2009 feature film “Star Trek,” directed by J.J. Abrams. Its sequel is set for release June 29, 2012.

It’s safe to say that the summer movie season up to this point has been pretty dismal.
“Iron Man 2” was a serviceable sequel – nothing more, nothing less – that lacked a lot of the charm of the original.
Ridley Scott’s “Robin Hood” was revisionist and well-made (as all of Scott’s films are), but with a pro-duction cost of $200 million, it un-derperformed at the domestic box office (although it’s worldwide numbers were very impressive).
“The A-Team” floundered, while the Tom Cruise actioner “Knight and Day” was an outright disaster.
“Twilight” has made its money, but it won’t convert anyone not interested in Bella and her two supernatural beaus, while “Sex and the City 2” was deemed a major disappointment, even by the show’s legion of fans.
In fact, only “Toy Story 3” has been truly very strong – that is until now with Christopher Nolan’s “Inception.”
The movie is truly one of the most challenging and visually in-teresting films of the year – and certainly the best so far (along with a Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” which also starred Leonardo DiCaprio),
The story of a dream investigator and the maze created by an archi-tect is a mazelike plot that demands the viewer pay close atten-tion. Plus, some of the visual cues and almost Escher-esque.
Reviews have been very positive, although there has been a bit of a backlash from some critics, who felt the film collapsed under its own weight, and who seemed to resent the initial hype (which at times was over the top).
Personally, I thought the movie was the best thing of the summer, although I enjoyed it more on an intellectual level than on a personal level as I constantly worked my way through its labyrinth-like story.
Some critics have called the movie “Kubrickesque” and one of the best ever. While, the movie certainly cements Nolan as one of the best filmmakers of his generation, such praise seems premature without the context of time.
So, while it’s certainly not the greatest movie ever, it’s certainly the best of the summer.

Thirty-five years ago on June 20, the summer movies changed forever.
In 1975, “Jaws,” based on Peter Benchley’s best-seller and directed by a then-little known director named Steven Spielberg opened. Before then, the summer months were considered a wasteland for movie releases. When films were released, they were given a limited market-by-market, slow expansion.
Then, despite the best-selling novel, there were concerns about “Jaws.” The shoot was notoriously difficult with a fake shark that didn’t work more often than it did. The budget and shooting schedule escalated, and the unproven Spielberg was convinced he would never make another movie again.
The result is well known by now. The movie went on to gross 260 million domestic, becoming the first movie to make more than $100 million and the then-all-time box office champ, where it would remain until 1977 when Spielberg’s buddy George Lucas released a little movie called “Star Wars.”
Previously, the big movies were released at the end of the year. The two previous box office champs – “The Exorcist” (1973) and “The Godfather” (1972) were end-of-the-year releases.
‘Jaws” was also a critical success, garnering four Academy Award nominations (Best Picture, Best Film Editing, Best Score, Best Sound), winning all, but Best Picture (the winner that year was “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest”). It also made Spielberg’s career.
Summer releasing patterns changed as well, reaching a major apex in 1977 with “Star Wars.”
The current domestic gross for “Jaws” still puts it at No. 50 all-time on the box-office charts, and when you adjust for inflation, its take ($1,018,226,600) puts it at No. 7 all-time.
So, when you enjoy or curse the current summer movie climate, remember it all goes back to a movie about a killer shark back in 1975.

I was saddened to learn that famed heavy-metal singer Ronnie James Dio passed away the evening of May 16 after a long battle with stomach cancer. He was 67.
Like a lot of people who were in high school in the 1980s, I liked my fair share of heavy metal. One of the biggest metal bands of that time was Dio, which had such hits as “Holy Diver.”
Dio was also in the second incarnation of Black Sabbath. That band rose to fame with Ozzy Osbourne as its lead singer, and the songs have stood the test of time. However – and this is not a popular viewpoint – I always preferred the Dio incarnation of Sabbath of the Ozzy incarnation. Bottom line is that while Ozzy was a showman, he was never the greatest of singers. Dio, however, had a gigantic octave range from the lowest, deepest growls to the highest of notes. In fact, “Rolling Stone” magazine ranked Dio fourth in its listing of 50 best rock singers (note singers, not frontmen – there’s a big difference) of all time (Queen’s Freddie Mercury was first, by the way).
Anyway, I became exposed to the Dio version of Sabbath from the animated film “Heavy Metal,” inspired by the magazine of the same name that still exists today. You have to remember that in the early 1980s, “Heavy Metal” was one of the magazines to read with its exotic artwork and tales. The film featured a great soundtrack, including Blue Oyster Cult’s “Veteran of a Thousand Psychic Wars” and the Black Sabbath song “Mob Rules.”
The first Dio Sabbath album was “Heaven and Hell” in 1980, followed in 1981 by “Mob Rules.”
Prior to Sabbath, Dio had enjoyed success in the bands Elf and Rainbow (featuring Deep Purple guitarist Richie Blackburn).
After leaving Black Sabbath in 1983, Dio fronted his own namesake band, blending heavy metal reality with fantastical visions of dragons, castles, demons and damsels. He was the fantasist’s heavy metal guy.
Later, he joined Sabbath for one so-so album (“Dehumanizer”) and later joined Sabbath bandmates Tony Iommi, Geezer Butler and Vinny Appice in the band Heaven and Hell, named after their most famous Sabbath album. The Heaven and Hell name was due to a lawsuit between Iommi and Osbourne the rights to the band name. The resulting album was the very good “The Devil You Know.”
The respect Dio garnered within the metal community was huge, as evidenced by the tributes all over the Internet from musician. Even his old rival Ozzy paid tribute on his Twitter account.
Personally, I’m proud to say that I own copies of the albums “Heaven and Hell,” “Mob Rules” and “Holy Diver” – on vinyl, of course.
Rest in peace Ronnie, and thanks for the musical memories.

I love to read.
To me, it is truly one of the great gifts the world has to offer. When I was a younger lad, I remember being at the main library in Spartanburg, S.C., and seeing a poster featuring Patrick Stewart (then full into his stint as Capt. Picard on “Star Trek: The Next Generation,”) holding a book alongside the words “Experience the Gift …” Even then, I though to myself “There’s a helluva lot of truth in that.”
In addition to my love of books, I also really like vampire stuff. The likes of Bela Lugosi, Christopher Lee and Frank Langella in their respective outings as Count Dracula played a bog role in my childhood.
So, inevitably, people who know me ask my opinions on the “Twilight” books by Stephanie Meyer. Even people who don’t know me, but who know I like to read, ask the same question.
The reason, I suspect, is because those books have taken on a life of their own. They’re the flavor of the moment, so to speak. It’s kind of like in the early-1980s when everybody and their grandmother and their fifth cousin on their mother-in-law’s side were reading Stephen King. Clive Barker (my personal favorite novelist) once said “Ap-parently, every American home has two books in it – one is The Bible and the other one is by Stephen King.” There’s truth to that.
The difference between King and Meyer’s “Twilight” books is that King has continued to endure as a best-selling novelist … a brand-name of sorts. He’s changed his style over the years, but has endured.
(Unrelated sidenote: I’m always amused when people complain to me that King’s current stuff is different than his earlier works like, say “The Shining” or “Salem’s Lot.” What to do expect the guy to do: Write the same thing over and over again? He’s a writer and a human being. He evolves and adapts. Like any writer worth his salt, he has to write and explore for himself first and foremost).
Anyway, will the “Twilight” books endure? Impossible to say. It’s simply too early to tell.
Now, the answer to the question of my thoughts on the “Twilight” books: My answer is that I personally am not a big fan of them. I honestly don’t care that much for them, but I’m thrilled they are successful – especially with their chosen audience.
The reason for this answer has two parts:
1). While I enjoy vampires and vampire books, I prefer a bloodier, more brutal (and frankly more erotic) style of vampire. I thoroughly enjoyed Whitley Strieber’s three vampire books (“The Hunger,” “The Last Vampire,” “Li-lith”), which are very violent and frankly sexual. I like Poppy Z. Brite’s works like “Lost Souls” and “Drawing Blood.” The fact is my tastes don’t veer towards the “Twilight” series. It’s not that they’re badly written, they’re just not my style. The same applies to Anne Rice’s earlier works. Well written, but not my cup of blood, I mean tea.
2). I am exceedingly thrilled the “Twilight” books are doing well. Anything that gets young people to read in this day and age of new media is a wonderful thing in my book. Literacy seems to be at a premium among all Ameri-cans, particularly the young, so whatever encourages reading and imagination is a plus.
Anyway, take all of this rambling for what it’s worth.

By the way, Creation Entertainment will be holding a “Twilight” convention in Charlotte from April 30-May 2. Details can be found at www.creationent.com.

Midnight

Well, that’s it.

Here’s the full list of winners:

Best Picture:

“The Hurt Locker”Best Director:

Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”)Best Actor:

Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”)Best Actress:

Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”Best Supporting Actor:

Christoph Waltz (“Inglouroius Basterds”)Best Supporting Actress:

Mo’Nique (“Precious”)Best Animated Feature:

“Up”Adapted Screenplay:

Geoffrey Fletcher (“Precious”)Original Screenplay:

Mark Boal (“The Hurt Locker”)Art Direction:

“Avatar”Cinematography:

“Avatar”Costume Design:

“The Young Victoria”Film Editing:

“The Hurt Locker”Foreign language film:

“El Secreto de Sus Ojos” (Argentina)Makeup:

“Star Trek”Original Score:

“Up”Original Song:

“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”Sound Editing:

“The Hurt Locker”Sound Mixing:

“The Hurt Locker”Visual Effects:

“Avatar”Documentary Feature:

“The Cove”Documentary Short Subject:

“Music by Prudence”Animated Short Film:

“Logorama”Live Action Short FIlm:

“The New Tenants”

11:58 p.m.

“The Hurt Locker” wins Best Picture, and for my money it was the best movie of the past year. If you haven;t seen “The Hurt Locker,” go rent it. It’s currently available on DVD. It’s a powerful movie.

11:53 p.m.

 The Best Director Oscar goes to: Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker”

She becomes the first woman to win a directing Oscar. She also used to be married to “Avatar” director James Cameron.

11:48 p.m.

Best Actress Oscar goes to: Sandra Bullock for “The Blind Side.” Bullock won a Razzie for Worst Actress for “All About Steve” on Saturday night. That makes her the first to win both in the same year.

11:40 p.m.

Here comes Best Actress, the toughest one to predict. Will the winner be Sandra Bullock or Meryl Streep? Or does Carey Mulligan sneak in? I still don’t know. Despite my earlier predictionof Bullock, I’m leaning toward Streep.

11:32 p.m.

Best Actor goes to: Jeff Bridges (‘Crazy Heart”). He’s a heckuva an actor and he deserves it. 

11:24 p.m.

It’s down to the big four awards. Looks like they’re bringing back the five presenters for the five nominees for the acting Oscars.

11:17 p.m.

Best Foreign Language Film: “El Secreto de Sus Ojos” (The Secret in Their Eyes”) from Argentina.

This is a big surprise since the common thought was this was a battle between Germany’s “The White Ribbon” and France’s “The Prophet.”

Two film mavericks Quentin Tarentino and Pedro Almodovar presented the award. That’s pretty cool.

11:08 p.m.

The Oscar for Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”

So, if my theory is correct, that means Best Picture will ultimately go to “The Hurt Locker.”

11:02

The Oscar for Best Documentary goes to: “The Cove.”

10:55 p.m.

The Oscar for visual effects goes to “Avatar.” Absolutely no surprise there since it’s a game-changer as far as visuals go.

10:52 p.m.

Best Original Score Oscar goes to: “Up.” Michael Giacchino’s had a good year. He won an Emmy. He produced an outstanding score for a blockbuster (“Star Trek”) and now he’s got an Oscar for an even better score for “Up.” Great speech on creativity. He might be on his way to becoming the next John Williams.

10:37 p.m.

Now, we pay tribute to those who passed away this past year.

10:36 p.m.

Best Cinematography Oscar goes to: “Avatar.” Well ‘Avatar” got one from “The Hurt Locker,” so maybe it won’t be a “Hurt Locker” sweep. “Avatar” stays alive. I think the one that wins Film Editing will ultimately get Best Picture. We’ll see.

10:30 p.m.

John Travolta introduces “Inglourious Basterds,” which reminds me of one of the coolest things about that movie: You have to love any movie that utilizes David Bowie’s song “Cat People.”

10:27 p.m.

Sound Mixing Oscar: “The Hurt Locker” Another win for “The Hurt Locker.” Like I said, looks like a big night for “The Hurt Locker.”

10:25 p.m.

Sound Editing Oscar goes to: “The Hurt Locker” “The Hurt Locker” pulls off an upset over “Avatar.” Looks like it will be a very nice night for “The Hurt Locker”

10:20 p.m.

Don’t know why the two stars of the “Twilight” movies are doing the tribute to horror movies since those movies are more romance than horror, but oh well.

Anyway, I love horror movies, so is one’s fun for me.

10:10 p.m.

Costume Design Oscar goes to: “The Young Victoria”

Not too surprising since “The Young Victoria” is a costume drama and it is the Oscar for Costume Design.

10:07 p.m.

Best Art Direction Oscar goes to: “Avatar.” Absolutely no surprise there. Sigourney Weaver presented the award. She was also in “Avatar.”

9:59 p.m.

Best Supporting Actress Oscar goes to: Mo’Nique (“Precious”) 

Robin Williams, who won a Best Supporting Actor Oscar for “Good Will Hunting,” presented this award since last year’s Best Supporting Actor winner (Heath Ledger for “The Dark Knight”) obviously is not here.

9:55 p.m.

As a lover of B movies, I glad to see Roger Corman honored.

9:52 p.m.

Highlights from the Governor’s Award event (Lifetime Achievement and so on). The event is held seperately now, instead of as part of the regular ceremony, in order to … you guessed it … keep the length of the show down. It probably won’t work.

9:50 p.m.

Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar goes to: “Precious” A mild upset. Most people were expecting “Up in the Air” to win, but the Academy got it right in this case. “Precious” and “An Education” were certainly better written than “Up in the Air.”

9:43

Best Make-up Oscar goes to: “Star Trek.” This is the first Oscar for any “Star Trek” film in the entire movie series.

9:38 p.m.

Ben Stiller shows up in “Avatar” make-up to present Best Makeup.

9:36 p.m.

Best Live-Action Short Oscar goes to: “The New Tenants”

The award winners for the best documentary short Oscar were the first ones of the night to get the ‘Your Time is Up, Get Off the Stage Now!” music

9:33 p.m.

Best documentary short Oscar goes to: “Music by Prudence”

9:31 p.m.

Best animated short film Oscar goes to: “Logorama” 

9:27 p.m.

Two up-and-coming actresses: Carey Mulligan and Zoe Saldana. Mulligan delivered a star-making performance in “An Education” and Saldana was great in the two biggest science-fiction movies of the year — “Star Trek” and “Avatar.”

9:24 p.m.

The John Hughes tribute was very nice.

9:17 p.m. Molly Ringwald and Matthew Broderick to do a tribute to John Hughes. Perfect two to do this with Broderick starring in Hughes’ “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” and Ringwald for roles in “Sixteen Candles” and “Pretty in Pink.”

9:16 p.m.

Best Original Screenplay Oscar goes to: Mark Boal for “The Hurt Locker.” I knew it would be either Boal or Tarentino for “Inglourious Basterds,” but had no idea which one. This could protend big things for “The Hurt Locker” later in the night.

9:14 p.m.

Best Original Screenplay (this is one of the tough ones)

9:04

Best Original Song goes to: “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart.”

The songs weren’t performed live this year as part of an effort to save time on the generally overlong Oscar broadcast. Too bad, since I would have loved to have heard Jeff Bridges perform “The Weary Kind” live

8:58 p.m.

The Oscar for Best Animated Feature goes to: “Up.” I personally loved “Coraline” and “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” but “Up” was probably the rigt choice. The first 10 minutes alone are something else.

8:52 p.m.

Going back to Martin and Baldwin’s opening bit. It was mildly amusing, but not the greatest start. The “Inglourious Basterds” joke was funny, though.

8:48 p.m.

Best Supporting Actor Oscar goes to: Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”). No big surprise there. It was the right choice.

8:45 p.m.

Penelope Cruz out to present the first Oscar — Best Supporting Actor

8:41 p.m.

It took 11 minutes for the first Toyota joke, plus a nifty”Inglourious Basterds” joke.

8:35 p.m.

Your hosts are Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin. The last time the Oscars had multiple hosts was in 1987 when the interesting trio of Chevy Chase, Goldie Hawn and Paul Hogan hosted.

We’ll have to see what Martin and Baldwin have up their sleeves. They should be quick on their feet and fast with a joke since the two have hosted “Saturday Night Live” more than any other two people in the show’s history.

8:32 p.m.

Neil Patrick Harris opens with a song-and-dance number. He was a great host at the Emmys. He’s not hosting here, but he’s certainly a better opening song-and-dance guy than the two hosts he’s presenting — Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin. By the way, Hugh Jackman’s opening song routine with Anne Hathaway was a highlight of last year’s show.

8:30 p.m.
The show opens with the nominees for Best Actor and Actress. An unusual opening move.

5:30 p.m.

The Oscar Red Carpet telecast begins at 8 p.m., with the ceremonies starting at 8:30.
Here’s a few final thoughts before the telecast begins.
• Last night, Sandra Bullock, who is one of the favorites to win Best Actress tonight for “The Blind Side,” won the Razzie for Worst Actress in the romantic-comedy “What About Steve.” She and Bradley Cooper shared the award for Best Couple for the same movie. Bullock, being a good sport and showing her sense of humor accepted the Razzie in person. Halle Berry did something similar a few years back when she ‘won’ the Razzie for “Catwoman.” – one year after winning the Best Actress Oscar for “Monster’s Ball.” For the record, “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” took the honor of Worst Picture. When I was entertainment writer in Abilene, Texas, at the Abilene Reporter-News, I actually had a Razzie vote for one year. That particular year (covering movies released in 1998), the winner of Worst Movie was “An Alan Smithee Film: Burn Hollywood, Burn.” The movie I voted to ‘win’ was “The Avengers,” a particularly bad adaptation of the popular 1960s TV show. The movie wasted a strong cast (Ralphe Fiennes, Uma Thurman and Sean Connery) amid its badness. “The Avengers” did win Worst Remake, Prequel or Sequel that year. Anyway, I miss my Razzie vote.
• I still think the two toughest categories to predict will be Best Original Screenplay and Best Actress. Best Original Screenplay is a tossup between “The Hurt Locker” and “Inglourious Basterds.” Tarentino’s screenplay for “Basterds” was a true original with off-the-wall witty dialogue and was real return-to-form for Tarentino, and he should win it. But, he already has a writing Oscar (for “Pulp Fiction”). “The Hurt Locker” was a powerful story, well written and well told. But, how much of its success came from Mark Boal’s outstanding screenplay, and how much from Kathryn Bigelow’s kinetic direction (which will net her a Best Director Oscar tonight)?
• There are three lines of thought to Best Actress, which is mostly viewed as a two-person race between Bullock (“The Blind Side”) and Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”). Here are the three ways to look at it:
• Option 1: Bullock, who is the very well-liked American Sweetheart-type, who usually specializes in romantic comedies, tackles a dramatic role and succeeds. The Academy loves to award popular actresses who pull that off. They did several years ago for Julia Roberts, who won for “Erin Brockovich.” Therefore, Bullock wins.
• Option 2: Meryl Streep has been nominated 1,897 times (OK, actually this is her 16th nomination), but she’s only won twice (“Kramer Vs. Kramer” and “Sophie’s Choice”). The Oscar for “Sophie’s Choice” came 27 years ago. So, in a way, Streep’s due. Plus, as good as Bullock was in “The Blind Side,” anyone who thinks she’s a better actress than Streep is out of their mind. Therefore, Streep wins.
• Option 3: Bullock and Streep split their votes and Carey Mulligan (“An Education”) or possibly Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”) sneak in and win. Most likely, the beneficiary would be Mulligan, whose performance earned her a BAFTA award for top actress. Therefore, Mulligan wins.

Finally, Best Picture comes down to “Avatar” vs. “The Hurt Locker.” I still think “The Hurt Locker” ultimately wins, but it’s easy to see the two top awards getting split with Bigelow winning Best Director, and “Avatar” representing the popular choice and winning Best Picture. There is the smallest chance that “Hurt Locker” and “Avatar” split their vote and “Inglourious Basterds” sneaks in to win.

Anyway, we’ll see in a few hours. I’ll be updating reactions and thoughts throughout the night beginning with the ceremonies telecast starting at 8:30 p.m.

The Oscars are coming up on Sunday night. In my two earlier blogs, I looked at some of the categories and offered a few predictions – a few of which I’ve had some second thoughts about. This week, we’ll look at the big, marquee categories:

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: “District 9,” “An Education,” “In the Loop,” “Precious,” “Up in the Air”
“Up in the Air” will win this. It has taken most of the precursor writing awards, and it’s more of a writer’s film than a director’s movie. “Precious” and “An Education” have an outside chance, but “Up in the Air” has got this one.

Best Original Screenplay:
Nominees: “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “The Messenger,” “A Serious Man,” “Up”
This is a two-horse race between Mark Boal’s screenplay for “The Hurt Locker” and Quentin Tarentino’s work for “Inglourious Basterds.” It’s a toss-up and could go either way. Tarentino already has one screenwriting Oscar (for “Pulp Fiction”), so I’m going to guess “The Hurt Locker.”

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (“Nine”), Vera Fermiga (“Up in the Air”), Maggie Gyllenhaal (“Crazy Heart”), Anna Kendrick (“Up in the Air”), Mo’Nique (“Precious”).
Mo’Nique has won everything related to this category and there’s no reason to see this changing now. Gyllenhaal has a slim chance, but Mo’Nique has this locked up.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Matt Damon (“Invictus”), Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”), Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”), Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”), Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”).
Just as Mo’Nique has dominated all the other supporting actress honors, Waltz has ruled over the supporting actor honors. The supporting acting Oscars sometimes honor long-overdue performers, so Plummer has a sligt shot. Amazingly, this is the venerable actor’s first-ever nomination. In the end, though, Waltz wins this one.

Best Actress
Nominees: Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”), Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”), Carey Mulligan (“An Education”), Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”), Meryl Streep (“Julie and Julia”).
This is one of the toughest to predict. Bullock has the Golden Globe and SAG award to her credit, while Streep and Mulligan have everything else. Bullock’s role in “The Blind Side” is the case of America’s Sweetheart tackling a serious role – the same tactic that earned Julia Roberts an Oscar for “Elin Brockovich.” All things being equal, Streep’s performance is the best and she hasn’t won in a long time, and anyone who honestly thinks Bullock is a better actress than Streep is seriously misguided. The dark horse scenario here: If Bullock and Streep split enough votes, that opens the way for Mulligan’s star-making turn in “An Education.” Ultimately, the Academy will probably go with the popular choice instead of the right one. So, I’m saying Bullock … no, Streep … no, Bullock … maybe Mulligan … no, Bullock … no, Streep … OK, Bullock. But I reserve my right to change my mind on this one.

Best Actor

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), George Clooney (“Up in the Air”), Colin Firth (“A Serious Man”), Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”), Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”)

Let’s break this down actor-byactor: Renner is fantastic in “The Hurt Locker,” but that performance is not a character study in the way that, say, Bridges’ is in “Crazy Heart.” Freeman tackles Nelson Mandela in “Invictus,” but he already has an Oscar from a Clint Eastwood film (“Million Dollar Baby”). Colin Firth garnered raves for his role in “A Serious Man,” but it wasn’t widely seen. George Clooney is basically playing George Clooney in “Up in the Air,” plus he already has an acting win (for “Syriana”). That leaves Bridges. This is his fifth nomination and he’s never won. He’s one of the most respected actors around, and he has a great role in “Crazy Heart.” He’s won all the precursors, so he’ll win here.

Best Director
Nominees: James Cameron (“Avatar”), Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”), Quentin Tarentino (“Inglourious Basterds”), Les Daniels (“Precious”), Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”).
Cameron won the Golden Globe, but Bigelow won the DGA award, and the DGA honor is about as close to a lock of prediction for the directing Oscar as any precursor award out there. History is made as Bigelow becomes the first woman to Best Director on Sunday night.

Best Picture
Nominees: “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “An Education,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “Up,” “Up in the Air”
The big award is a three-horse contest between “Avatar,” ‘The Hurt Locker” and “Inglourious Basterds.” “Basterds” is a long shot, but could sneak in if “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker” split, coupled with an aggressive Academy marketing campaign by the film’s studio. “Avatar” has the Golden Globe, but it’s been honored already in a way since it is the biggest moneymaking movie in the world, plus Cameron cleaned house years ago with “Titanic.” “The Hurt Locker” has the most momentum. It was a critical favorite, it won the Producers Guild top prize, and cleaned house at the BAFTAs. Plus, while it didn’t do big box office, it’s enjoying a strong recent release on DVD. Ultimately, I’m picking “The Hurt Locker.”

I’ll be doing a live blog of reactions to the Oscar telecast through the night Sunday, so check back here on that night.

The Oscars are set for March 7.
Here is the second of three or so looks at some of the categories. I’m not going to mess with Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, Short Film Animated or Short Film Live Action because those are pure guesswork.
Last time, I looked at visual effects, sound mixing, sound editing, makeup and costume design.
Today, we look at a few more categories.

Art Direction
The nominees:
“Avatar,” “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus,” “Nine,” “Sherlock Holmes,” “The Young Victoria”
Costume dramas tend to win here, but the art direction guild gave its top prizes to “Sherlock Holmes” and “Avatar.” “Nine” could play the spoiler, but “Avatar” is the only best picture nominee here, so that’s what I’m taking
Winner: “Avatar”

Cinematograhy
The nominees:
“Avatar,” “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “The White Ribbon”
An important category as the top three best picture nominees square off here. All three are deserving, but I’m going to give the edge to “Avatar,” since its camera-work served a greater part of its story – from a visual and textured standpoint.
Winner: “Avatar”

Foreign Language Film
The nominees
“Ajami,” “El Secreto de Sus Ojos,” “The Milk of Sorrow,” “Un Prophete,” “The White Ribbon”
Don’t know much about these. However, “The White Ribbon” is the only nominee here to get a nod elsewhere (cinematography), so I’m giving it the edge.
Winner: “The White Ribbon”

Original Score
The nominees
“Avatar,” “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Sherlock Holmes,” “Up”
Michael Giachinno’s score for “Up” is the best of the year – period. In fact, it was a good year for Giachinno, who also composed a superior score for “Star Trek.” He’ll get the recognition.
Winner: “Up”

Original Song
The nominees
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”, “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog,” “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36,” “Take It All” from “Nine,” “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Despite multiple nods for “The Princess and the Frog” and the fact that animated films usually have an edge here, this category is all about “The Weary Kind.”
Winner: “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”

Animated Feature
The nominees
“Coraline,” “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “The Princess and the Frog,” “The Secret of Kells,” “Up”
One of these also got a best picture nod, so it’s got the big edge.
Winner: “Up”

Film Editing
The nominees:
“Avatar,” “District 9,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious”
The most important category. Once again, the three top movies for best picture are fighting it out, each deserving in this category. I have a feeling the winner of this category will ultimately win best picture. Right now, “Hurt Locker” has the momentum, so that’s the way I’m leaning.
Winner: “The Hurt Locker”

That’s it for now.
That leaves adapted screenplay, original screenplay, supporting actress, supporting actor, actress, actor, director and picture. In a week or so, I’ll look at those before my final Oscar predictions.